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Politics 106
| Question | Answer |
|---|---|
| Public Opinion Polls | Scientific effort to determine what an entire group thinks about an issue by asking a smaller sample of the group for its opinion; takes 1000 people to get an accurate representation |
| Reasons public opinion is important | Normative & Empirical |
| Normative | Public Opinion should influence what the government does in a democracy-->why? b/c we are a democracy |
| Empirical | Many people behave as though public opinion matters, and thus the measures, records, and reactions to public are a factor in politics (It matters because we act like it matters; follows from normative; protests wouldn't matter if no one showed up) |
| Ideal Democratic Citizen | The virtuous, citizen activated by concern for the common good; recognizes that democracy comes with obligations as well as rights |
| Apolitical, Self-Interested Actors | Inattentive and ill-informed, politically intolerant and rigid, unlikely to get involved in political life |
| Horse-race Polls | (how polls are used) Asking about voting intentions in an effort to add drama to the campaign. Everything becomes a reaction to the voter intentions (Asking voters, make a big deal out of the "change"; media wants attention and a reaction) |
| Political Socialization | the process by which we learn our political orientations and allegiances |
| Agents of Political Socialization | #1: Family; schools; churches; neighborhoods; workplaces; peer groups; major events |
| Gender Gap | As women attained greater independence and education, the gap in participation has disappeared and the gap in ideology has grown (women tend to be more liberal, and vote more) |
| Marriage Gap | Women who are married or widowed tend to be ideologically more conservative |
| Race and Ethnicity | The differences are not consistent, but are drastic on certain issues; Hispanics=Catholic (Republican), but a minority (liberal) |
| Sample Bias | Using a sample that over-represents a portion of the population, thus leading to errors in results and skewed information (cell phones...younger people-no land lines); 1000-2000 can be very representative of 300 mil if randomly drawn and representative |
| Pseudo-Polls | Data, but it's B.S. |
| Self-Selection Poll | How can this be representative? Crowd sourcing; tell people to vote online, have everyone vote |
| Push-Polls | Present false/negative information, often in hypothetical form, and ask respondents to react to it...therefore manipulate public opinion; everyone has to fill it out ("Knowing that Obama kills puppies, would you still vote for him?"-mostly no) |
| Challenges of polls | Internet can be good and bad (people are more responsive, but samples can be biased and self-selected); cell phones are more difficult to contact |
| Accuracy of polls | Generally very accurate; right in every presidential since 1980 (EXCEPT 2000-Bush v. Gore) |
| On-Line Processing | We are very capable of receiving and evaluating info as it comes, but we often forget the reasons for our opinions and evaluations-fights with our friends we don't remember; "love Obama"...idk why |
| Two-Step Flow of Information | We trust the OPINION LEADERS and influentials to filter information and be experts for us |
| Age & Voting | Likelihood increases with age-18-29 group only exceeded 50% in 3 elections |
| Gender & Voting | Women more likely than men |
| Income & Voting | Wealthy more likely |
| Education & Voting | Education is historically one of the strongest predictors; college educated voted at 92% in 2004...slightly lower in 2008 |
| Race and Ethnicity & Voting | Minorities less likely to vote, but that seems to be changing. More minorities (esp. Latinos) are voting. Politicians gear toward getting minorities, otherwise won't win. |
| Legal Obstacles & Why We don't Vote | Registration laws in the U.S. decrease voter turnout; voter fatigue-getting tired of paying attention; voting on Tuesdays limits turnout->old reasons for Tues->farming? religion?; limited access to vote by mail; intentional/unexpected effects of laws-Tues |
| Choosing a Candidate-Partisanship & Social Group Membership | Party affiliation is largest factor; we like candidates who "look" like us; Mitt Romney and "The Mormon Question"->won't vote for a Mormon |
| Choosing a Candidate-Gender | Gender has mixed effects, but women have key issues and a history of voting for women (abortion/Bill Brady-lost women voters) |
| Choosing a Candidate-Race | African Americans have voted Democratic in overwhelming majority since the 1960s |
| Choosing a Candidate-Ethnicity | Less clear, though there are some tendencies.and a battle for voters |
| Prospective Voting | Voters base their decisions on policies and positions they believe will be enacted and supported by their candidate IN THE FUTURE->make a promise, we believe it |
| Retrospective Voting | Voters base their decisions on the state of current events and hold those in power accountable (Clinton and the economy, Reagan and "are you better" off today?) |
| The Invisible Primary | Talk to fellow politicians, gather early support, collect campaign cash, leak the rumor to media, visit Iowa, form exploratory committee, make the announcement |
| Party Caucus | Party members meet and discuss/debate, then vote for a nominee; public is involved, but only by party members |
| Open Primary | Any voter can vote in any primary regardless of party affiliation; either Democrat/Republican; IL has this |
| Closed Primary | Only voters registered with the associated party affiliation may vote in that party's primary (only Republican ballot) |
| The Convention | Public event, speakers, announce VP-criteria=where they're from, experience, ideology, balance the ticket; not second-most votes |
| Electoral College | 270 to win (538 total: 435 House, 100 Senate, 3 from D.C.); 51% of votes for a party (Dem. in IL), then president gets all votes in electoral college |
| Resources of Campaigns | Time, people, money (time most important) |
| Valence Issues | Issues on which we all agree (strong economy, fighting terrorism, etc.) |
| Position Issues | Issues with 2 sides where candidates attempt to drive a wedge in voters (abortion, spending, military use, etc.) |
| Wedge Issues | Issues which drive a wedge within a party (Republican being pro-choice, Huntsman on global warming) |
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