Help
Options
Didn't know it?
click below
click below
Knew it?
click below
click below
Don't Know
Remaining cards (0)
Know
retry
shuffle
restart
0:00
Embed Code - If you would like this activity on your web page, copy the script below and paste it into your web page.
Normal Size Small Size show me how
Normal Size Small Size show me how
Judgement/Decision
Lecture 20& 21 Schwartz & Discussion 4/17
| Question | Answer |
|---|---|
| what are heuristics? | cognitive strategies that help to simplify what would otherwise be complex judgement tasks |
| a judgement is considered biased when it | deviates from the normative, decision analytic, approach |
| decision analysis is | a set of procedures for making choices when outcomes are uncertain & involves breaking down complex decisions into smaller, more tractable choices which are then combined to reach an overall decision |
| expected utility theory (EU) is an approach to decision making where | a probability that is an objective frequency (based on data) of a possible outcome is multiplied by its utility and the action that leads to the highest expected utility is usually the one that is chosen |
| subjective expected utility theory (SEU) is an approach to decision making where | a probability, that is an subjective belief, of a possible outcome is multiplied by its utility and the action that leads to the highest expected utility is usually the one that is chosen |
| subjective expected utility based decision analytic procedures.. | prescribe how decisions should be made and may be normative but it is not always descriptive |
| decision analysis can be used to | make decisions about diagnosis and treatment, allocation of scarce resources, & to compare the risks and benefits of various actions |
| what are the limitations to SEU theory | required info may not be available, the question of practicality (time consuming), measurement of utility is not easy to quantify |
| the most important difficulty in applying decision analysis is that | people to not always behave as SEU theory claims they should |
| the availability heuristic is when | people estimate frequency or probability by the ease with which instances or associations can be brought to mind |
| in the availability heuristic sensational events are easier to recall than | more common, but mundane, events because they receive more media coverage |
| because the availability heuristic relies on an individuals personal experiences it can lead to biased judgements when | doctors attempt to estimate probabilities in the general population where their personal experience may be atypical |
| availability can bias probability judgement even when | experience" is very recent |
| probability judgements rise and fall with | factors that affect peoples ability to recall relevant instances |
| in the representativeness heuristic | the probability of an event is estimated but the degree to which it fits an existing cognitive stereotype |
| the predictive value of a positive test result is | the proportion of true positives out of all the positives a test produces |
| the value of a positive test result depends on | the population base rate |
| Bayes formula is used to calculate the relevant probabilities in judgement situations in which prior information is available | P(E/H)P(H)/P(E/H)P(H)+P(E/FH)(P(FH) |
| decision makers base their "strength of association" estimates on | relationships they believe ought to exist (that are representative) rather than on true empirical covariation |
| illusory correlations appear to be responsible for | the persistence of many unwarranted beliefs and suggest that ideas may covary even when they are unrelated |
| the positive testing strategy is when you | seek information that is consistent, rather than inconsistent, with one's current hypothesis and in most cases is logically useless |
| representative thinking can make people | insensitive to considerations of sample size |
| smaller sample sizes are | more likely to deviate from the population mean than large ones |
| the gamblers fallacy is the | unwarranted expectation that every sample must represent the population mean |
| random fluctuation can produce deviations from the true score and are | unlikely to be repeated |
| representative thinking is likely to produce more harm than good because it | leads to people ignoring base rates, to make pseudo diagnostic judgements, to misinterpret random events, and to misunderstand statistical regression |
| human information processing capacity is | finite and easily overloaded |
| because judgement does not necessarily improve with increasing information, people who assign higher that warranted probabilities to their predictions are said to be | overconfident |
| hindsight bias occurs when | our present knowledge is allowed to influence our estimates of the likelihood of previous events |
| the anchoring and adjusting heuristic recommends that | probabilities be estimated by first beginning with an "anchored" probability value and then adjusting this value according to the features of the specific case |
| the initial placement of the "anchor" can have an | unduly large influence on final judgements, even when the anchor point in incorrect because of the importance of first impressions |
| anchoring and adjustment is closely related to availability and representativeness because | availability may affect the choice of the anchor point while representativeness may lead people to neglect the base rate altogether focusing entirely on the specific of the case |
| value-induced biases violate one of the main underpinnings of SEU theory | namely that the utility of an outcome is independent of its probability |
| when a sure thing is stated positively it is | preferred to a gamble but when a sure thing is stated in the negative people prefer to take a gamble |
| preferences are affected by | the way an outcome is described |
| discounting is | the tendency to stop searching for the possible causes of a patient's problem after one plausible cause has been found |
| augmentation is | the requirement of especially strong evidence for a diagnosis when some counterindicant is present |
| errors arise when a counterindicant is | allowed to outweigh stronger positive predictors |
| linear judgement models consist of | a set of predictor variables on the one hand and some criterion (the outcome to be predicted) on the other |
| when linear models are being used to predict judgements, the statistical technique of multiple regression analysis represents a | straightforward way to determine the weights to be assigned to the various predictors |
| linear models may be used to | design decision aids |
| what is the main advantage of linear models? | the are of use and their explicit nature |
| what are the practical problems of decision aids based on linear models? | large, reliable databases are not available for many clinical problems & they cannot help a clinician identify previously unrecognized causal variables nor are they capable of suggesting new hypotheses or of explaining their own decisions |
| linear models fare best when they | are used to make predictions for specific problems |
| linear models are difficult to apply to problems that | originate in complex social contexts and do not have neat algorithmic solutions |
| what is an expert system? | a computer program that solves problems and gives advice by making inferences from the available data & need public and private knowledge to behave like human experts |
| public knowledge includes | information found in textbooks: definitions, facts, theories |
| private knowledge consists of | the rules of thumbs the enable experts to make educated guesses when necessary to recognize promising approaches to problems, and to deal effectively with uncertain data |
| expert systems serve a teaching role because | they can explain the basis for their recommendations- by tracing through their reasoning process |
| expert systems generate hypotheses by | a type of backward inference in which current observations are connected to underlying causes & as further information is gathered hypotheses my be altered |
| expert systems often display | a lack of common sense known as the "plateau and cliff" effect |
| expert systems tend to be | slower than human experts and to give considerably more complicated explanations of their thinking processes than humans do |
| deductive (deterministic) reasoning is | logically valid theory > hypothesis > observation > confirmation |
| inductive (or probabilistic) reasoning is | observation > pattern > hypothesis > theory |
| normative reasoning theories are | how one should reason; rules of logic |
| descriptive reasoning theories are | how one actually reasons; biases & heuristics |
| simulation heuristic is where you | base judgments on how easily you can imagine |
| the conjunction fallacy is | believing that a conjunction of events is more likely that a single event & often occurs due to a causal reasoning |
| framing effects is where | the way that information is presented leads to difference decisions |
| when there are many possible operators that you could apply, at the initial state instead you may want to | work backward and instead start at the goal state |
Created by:
kzegelien2005
Popular Psychology sets